Fence Riding

I do my best to stay out of political debates as I have learned that anything I say will normally not change ones political leanings. (This usually comes from within.)   As I reflect on political debates it leads me to other discussions I have witnessed where opinions are strong and change is reticent.  The stronger feelings are, the stronger opinions are, and usually the stronger the debate is, and the less likely people are to change.  Most politicians, eager to please, will ride the fence hoping their comments will entice voters on both sides of an issue. 

One hot button issue lately is the building of a mosque near ground zero.   While I think everyone is in agreement that the mosque has a constitutional "right" to be there, the disagreement comes when people determine whether or not the Mosque should be there?   Many people do offensive things they have the "right" to do, but it does not make them any less offensive.  I suppose with time the offensiveness will be lessened but the bumper stickers I remember seeing after 9-11 "We will never forget" indicate it might take quite a long time for those offended to be less so.  While a compromise may develop, I seriously doubt we will all agree.  But more importantly we shouldn't all agree!  It takes all kinds of people to make the world go around. 

While I certainly do not overly enjoy debating I do enjoy watching, reading, listening and forming an opinion, or taking a side.  As an example I have read economic debates over whether deflation or inflation is the more ominous threat.  After reading, I believe inflation is the more ominous worry although I admit we may have deflation in parts of the economy.  (How is that for fence riding?)

Another investment led debate relates to whether or not Long Term Treasury Bonds are in a bubble or not.  While I admit we could see higher prices (lower yields)in the short term I do believe longer term treasuries are in a bubble and we will sooner or later have to pay a price for all our public debt and yields are headed higher, (lowering Treasury bond prices.)  Remember with bonds, prices and yields have an inverse relationship.

We are all aware that opinions are very easy to come by, and can easily alienate approximately half the population who hold an equally stubborn opinion on the other side.  This is why we will often not hear strong opinions from politicians even though we elect them with the intent they will represent more of our opinions on issues than their opponent.   While I commend President Obama for making a statement about the mosque near ground zero he really, (to the best of my knowledge) did not provide an opinion.  Perhaps he was hoping or intending it to be inferred?   To his credit, most Presidents would probably stay away from the issue and say nothing not wanting to alienate a large portion of their constituents.

While I can definitely relate and understand the desire to "ride the fence" as too many strong opinions can alienate friends and coworkers, it sure is fun to mix it up from time to time.  After all, if we all agreed the world would be a boring place.

Written By: Daniel Petrey, CFO, MBA